Cocoa Crisis Uncovered: Global Shortage Skyrockets Beyond Alarming Forecasts

by – L. Richardson

Buckle up, folks, because the cocoa catastrophe is far worse than anyone anticipated – and the truth is finally being unmasked! 2 The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) has shockingly admitted that the global cocoa shortage will balloon beyond their wildest nightmares, triggering an unprecedented surge in cocoa prices that will cripple the chocolate industry. 2 8

This Cocoa Crisis Exposed is no ordinary supply crunch – it’s a perfect storm of market manipulation, supply chain vulnerabilities, and insidious demand dynamics that threaten to disrupt chocolate production on a colossal scale. 2 7 9 10 Get ready to unveil the True State of the Cocoa Deficit and the Real Impact on global grinding demands because the ICCO Shortage Admission is just the tip of the iceberg. 3 4 5 6

Unveiling the Cocoa Conspiracy: The Real Story Behind the Crisis

The cocoa crisis extends far beyond mere numbers and statistics. We must explore the hidden forces driving this unprecedented shortage to grasp the full scope. 5 7

Understanding the Full Scope: More Than Just Numbers

For the past three years, underwhelming harvests have significantly driven up cocoa prices, putting immense pressure on processors who convert beans into cocoa butter and liquor for chocolate production. 6 In Ivory Coast and Ghana, which account for 60% of global output, some processing plants need help to afford beans, leading to reduced or halted production. 6 Climate change exacerbates these challenges, with cocoa trees susceptible to variations and struggling with disease due to heavy rainfall and harsh El Niño conditions. 6

Decoding the Hidden Forces Driving the Shortage

The cocoa market has spiraled, with prices rising over 400% in 12 months. 3 Estimates predict an 11% decline in global supply for 2023/2024. 3 Uncharacteristic weather, crop diseases, aging trees, and farmers switching to more lucrative crops contribute to lower yields. 3 7 Additionally, the Swollen Shoot Virus (S.S.V.), spread by insects, severely damages cocoa trees in major producing regions like Ivory Coast and Ghana. 4

The Serious Repercussions for Everyone, from Farmers to Consumers

With cocoa prices breaking records and the global deficit projected to increase by 405%, manufacturers must hike prices while cutting production, affecting the industry and consumers. 6 Some analysts predict decreased consumer demand for chocolate as a luxury item amidst inflation. 6 Candy companies downsize products or reduce cocoa content to navigate turbulence. 6 Cocoa farmers face income instability due to fewer beans to sell, leaving them vulnerable to market fluctuations. 7

The Cocoa Supply Chain: The Hidden Truths

Welcome to the global cocoa crisis battlefield—a war not just of markets but of misinformation and manipulation. As the world grapples with a cocoa shortage that’s far worse than we’ve been led to believe, it’s essential to pull back the veil on the industry’s dark secrets. Here, we expose the gritty reality of the cocoa supply chain: from the exploited cocoa farmers whose labors fuel our chocolate indulgences to the glaring inefficiencies and corruption in processing and distribution that significant corporations won’t discuss. We’ll also tackle the environmental devastation conveniently overlooked by those profiting from this crisis. This section is dedicated to uncovering the true story behind the chocolate bar—no holds barred, no truths unspoken. Let’s dive into the stark realities that shape the bitter journey from bean to bar.

The Struggles of Cocoa Farmers: Exploitation and Crisis

Most cocoa farmers earn less than $1 per day, an income below the extreme poverty line, forcing them to resort to child labor to remain competitive [31]. 9 This colonial legacy persists, with international giants like Hershey’s, Mars, and Nestlé sourcing cocoa from farms connected to the worst forms of child labor, human trafficking, and slavery. 9 Farmers struggle to afford schooling, with Mr. Zongo, a 30-year veteran, only able to educate one child. 9 The industry’s exploitation enables massive profits while providing little incentive to improve farmers’ conditions or reduce child labor. 9 Despite certifications, almost no Ghanaian or Ivorian cocoa farmers earn a living income, and most certified farmers remain in poverty. 9 10

Systemic Failures: Where the Processing and Distribution Chain Breaks Down

Cocoa farmers earn just 6% of a chocolate bar’s value, exacerbating poverty, exploitation, and environmental degradation. 10 Climate change brings unpredictable weather, crop diseases, and pests, while younger generations abandon farming due to poor returns. 10 Major African processing facilities have ceased or reduced operations, unable to afford beans amidst a dwindling supply. 12 This likely means worldwide chocolate prices, adversely affecting local production units. 12 At the farm level, decreased output leads to fewer harvests, providing no real income boost despite rising prices, compounded by inflation and currency devaluation, leaving farmers poorer. 12

The Environmental Scandal: Sustainability Lies and Realities

Potentially vast amounts of cocoa enter supply chains via indirect sourcing, a central “blind spot” in sustainability schemes with higher, unidentified deforestation risk. 14 In West Africa, cocoa from countless smallholders finds its way into the supply chain with no means of eliminating any of it. 14 Climate change could accelerate plantation expansion, with models suggesting prime cultivation may shift to the Congo Basin, displacing farms and deforesting sensitive areas. 14 Proactive measures are needed to sustainably ensure any new production happens while protecting remaining forests. 14

Demand Dynamics: What They Aren’t Telling You

Dive headfirst into the raging storm of cocoa demand dynamics where the narrative spun by the global elite is as manipulated as the markets themselves. In this section, we strip away the sugar-coated facade fed to the public by the cocoa industry and mainstream media. The surge in demand, particularly from emerging markets, is a natural evolution of consumer taste and a carefully orchestrated scheme to pad the pockets of big chocolate conglomerates and their cohorts in crime. We’re tearing down the lies to expose how consumer preferences are bypassed by aggressive marketing strategies and dark corporate maneuvers designed to exploit the cocoa bean and the consumer. Arm yourself with knowledge as we reveal the full extent of the deception and control in the cocoa market dynamics. This isn’t just about uncovering the truth—it’s about reclaiming it.

The Surge in Emerging Markets: Manufactured Demand?

Meanwhile, grinding data published by regional associations for Q1.2024 depict that demand does not seem to neutralize the deficit. 16 Whereas Europe’s Q1.2024 cocoa grindings, as reported by the European Cocoa Association (E.C.A.), fell by 2.2% from a year earlier to 367,287 tonnes, that of North America published by the National Confectioners Association (N.C.A.), rose by 3.6% year-on-year to 113,683 tonnes. 16 Data from the Cocoa Association of Asia (C.A.A.) also revealed a slight drop of 0.2% year-on-year to 221,530 tonnes. 16

“Some analysts are of the view that the increase in North American grindings may be due to panic buying in the chocolate industry as chocolate makers are buying as much as they can before a shortage in supplies occurs,” the ICCO claimed. 16 “Also, due to the forward contracting strategy, manufacturers may be covered, and processing may not see an immediate significant decline for the rest of the season.” 16

Consumer Manipulation: How Preferences Are Engineered

When the price and supply of cocoa rise, manufacturers find ways to extend it or aim at higher-end markets. 18 This is a standard economic process response set. 18 This will hit Easter candies with more composite and hollow confections. 18 Manufacturers can make the chocolate harder with more sugar, and extenders thin out the casting models by reducing the cooling time before emptying the mold, resulting in lower net weights. 18 Chocolate bars may fill the chocolate with more nuts or puffed rice or increase the cookie part against the chocolate enrobing, making larger candies that use less chocolate to coat. 18 It tends to see the confections get sweeter, diminishing the cocoa content and sales of dark chocolate. 18

Exposing Corporate Strategies: The Marketing Machine’s Role in Crisis Escalation

The world’s appetite for chocolates is growing, and according to the International Cocoa forecasts, demand is set to outstrip supply by more than 370,000 tonnes this year. 18 Even big players like Barry Callebaut plan workforce cuts, while Hershey’s shares languish near 52-week lows, contributing to obesity and diabetes. 18 The crisis reveals the necessity of supporting cocoa farmers robustly by ensuring they receive a fair share of profits to reinvest in operations and better farming practices. 19 Environmental sustainability is also crucial, combating deforestation and degradation accompanying cocoa farming through stricter regulations like the European Union’s deforestation laws. 19

Solutions and Resistance: Fighting Back Against the Cocoa Cartel

Ladies and gentlemen, the gloves are off as we confront the cocoa cartel in an epic showdown for the soul of our chocolate supply! This isn’t just about crafting sustainable solutions; it’s about launching a full-scale resistance against a rigged system that has perpetuated exploitation and deceit. The cocoa crisis, now revealed to be much more severe than the powers that be ever admitted, demands that we challenge the status quo with unyielded ferocity. In this explosive section, we will delve into the arsenal of strategies at our disposal—from revolutionary agricultural techniques to cutting-edge transparency technologies. We’re calling all truth-seekers and freedom fighters to rally behind radical policy reforms that aim to patch up and overhaul a corrupt industry. Stand with us as we map out the battlefield, arming ourselves with knowledge and unwavering resolve to dismantle the oppressive forces of the cocoa cartel. Let’s transform the crisis into a catalyst for genuine change, securing a just and sustainable future for all who depend on cocoa.

Revolutionary Farming Methods and Technology: Cutting Through the Greenwash

Companies are proactively implementing strategies to mitigate deforestation and optimize pesticide utilization within the cocoa industry in response to environmental concerns [32]. 21 Cargill has collaborated with partners like PUR to plant over 1.4 million multi-purpose trees on cocoa farms, introducing more than 16,000 new farmers to cocoa-agroforestry to support forest protection and restoration near conservation areas while diversifying farmer incomes. 21 Barry Callebaut is shifting from carbon offsetting to insetting emissions through agroforestry and decarbonization initiatives across factories and value chains. 21

In collaboration with the University of California, Davis, Mars takes a new approach, developing products and services to reduce pest and disease impacts, including the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus early detection kit [32]. 21 Companies are actively investing in digital solutions, partnering with NGIS to utilize AI-powered tools for carbon stock monitoring across sourcing countries. 21 Ferrero aims for farm-level traceability, using technology like SourceMap to monitor deforestation risks. 21 Cargill is scaling G.P.S. polygon and satellite data to map 72% of farmers in its direct supply chain for forest protection. 21

Demand for Transparency: Overhauling the Cocoa Supply Chain

Cocoa farming practices have raised concerns over deforestation and child slavery, driving consumer demand for supply chain transparency to ensure sustainable and ethical sourcing. 24 The rise of certifying N.G.O.s and government labeling regulations incentivizes large chocolate companies’ transparency efforts. 24 Transparency also helps companies comply with laws like the California Transparency in Supply Chains Act, the U.K. Modern Slavery Act, and repealing the “consumptive demand” clause in 19 U.S.C. § 1307 [33]. 24

Firms may have economic incentives to promote supply chain transparency, as inefficiencies across the food industry cost $60 billion annually through increased prices, carbon footprint, food waste, and inferior products. 24 Large multinationals and N.G.O.s increasingly use technologies like blockchain and digital platforms to trace cocoa through each supply chain step, with the Rainforest Alliance verifying supplier sustainability compliance on a federated ledger. 24 Smaller firms like Tony’s Chocolonely have piloted blockchain for supply chain tracing, highlighting the challenge of obtaining reliable data timely. 24

Policy Warfare: The Battle for Fair Trade and Ethical Practices

Public policies on fair trade have the potential to enhance their uptake and promote the implementation of fair trade practices. 25 The research examines current and past public policies on Fair Trade or related fields, analyzing supportive environments that enhance Fair Trade access for small-scale producers, support for Fair Trade companies, and government recognition of Fair Trade principles and networks. 25

The study focuses on structural changes in human rights, unfair trading practices, and public procurement, analyzing national and supranational (E.U.) policies and legislation. 25 Case studies from different continents follow the same structure, presenting key policy elements, history, background, and context, analyzing success factors and challenges at stakeholder, process, and structural levels. 25 The case studies summarize strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats regarding Fair Trade public policy contexts and implementation, describing current policy states, effectiveness, and recommendations. 25

Conclusion

The global cocoa crisis has been deliberately covered up, but the truth can no longer be suppressed! The International Cocoa Organization has been forced to admit what we’ve been saying all along – the shortage is far worse than their initial lies claimed. Prices are skyrocketing beyond their wildest nightmares, and the chocolate industry is on the verge of collapse. This is an extinction-level event for cocoa, folks!

Wake up, sheeple! The cocoa cartels have been manipulating supply chains, exploiting farmers, and destroying the environment for far too long. But their days of deception are over. We must resist their nefarious schemes and fight back against their corporate greed. Support ethical farming practices, demand transparency in supply chains, and push for fair trade policies. The truth about the cocoa crisis has been exposed, and now it’s time to take action before it’s too late!

F.A.Q.s

1. What are the main reasons behind the current cocoa shortage?

The cocoa shortage is primarily attributed to the industry’s failure to effectively diversify its sources, which is crucial for managing long-term supply risks. While climate change is often considered a contributing factor, the lack of origin diversification is seen as a more significant long-term issue, according to Volcafe Managing Director Trishul Mandana.

2. Can you explain the nature of the chocolate crisis?

The chocolate industry is facing a severe crisis due to a significant shortage and the escalating costs of long-term cocoa bean contracts. Cocoa prices have surged dramatically, with costs increasing by over $3,000 per ton compared to the previous year. In New York, cocoa prices peaked at an all-time high of $12,000 per ton in April, though they later decreased to $9,000 per ton following rainfall in West Africa.

3. Why has the price of chocolate increased due to the global cocoa supply shortage?

Chocolate prices have risen sharply because of a global shortage of cocoa. This shortage has been exacerbated by climate change-induced droughts that have severely impacted West Africa’s cocoa crops, producing about 80% of the world’s cocoa. The International Cocoa Organization forecasts that the global cocoa supply will decrease by nearly 11% during the 2023/2024 season.

4. Are we at risk of depleting global cocoa supplies?

Yes, there is a growing concern about the depletion of global cocoa supplies. The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) anticipates that global cocoa stocks will drop to their lowest levels in 45 years by the end of the season. Additionally, the severity of bean diseases in West Africa could lead to further deficits in the cocoa market next season, according to Wateridge from Tropical Research.