
by – L. Richardson
A critical moment awaits America as November 5 draws near. Intelligence reports reveal that more than 150,000 migrants are ready to cross the southern border. These migrants, whose temporary agreements are set to expire after Election Day, are poised to trigger a massive movement that could swiftly and drastically reshape American immigration patterns. The urgency of this impending crisis cannot be overstated, as it could lead to a significant strain on resources, potential security risks, and a humanitarian crisis.
The recent drop in border crossings hides a carefully coordinated political plan. U.S. and Mexican authorities have documented agreements that prove this strategy. Border Patrol’s data reveals specific timing patterns in enforcement. At the same time, migrants in Tapachula have confirmed that large groups are getting ready to move north. All signs indicate a historic surge in illegal border crossings will happen right after the presidential election, whatever the results may be.
The Political Charade Behind Declining Border Numbers
The politics around border security has turned into a show, as VP Harris tries to take credit for fewer border crossings. She never was the “border czar” 1. Her job was dealing with “root causes” of migration from some Central American countries 2. The border chaos got worse during this time.
Border encounters hit an all-time high in December 2023 3. The Biden administration didn’t deal with the pressure and had to rush into diplomatic talks. After 250,000 migrants flooded the southern border, President Biden made an urgent call to Mexican President López Obrador 4. The results came quickly:
- Border crossings dropped by 50% within one month 4
- Mexico stepped up its patrols and deportations
- They moved migrants to southern Mexico in a planned way
The artificial peace started falling apart by February. Border Patrol expects significant increases this spring 5. López Obrador spoke candidly in a “60 Minutes” interview, revealing that Mexico’s more vigorous enforcement was temporary. He said it was “a short-term solution, not a long-term one” 5.
The interview revealed how Mexico used its position. López Obrador came up with considerable demands, including:
- $20 billion annual commitment to poor Latin American countries
- Lifting of Venezuela sanctions
- End of the Cuban embargo
- Legalization of millions of Mexicans in the U.S. 4
The political games became more apparent when we analyzed the administration’s repeated money requests. In August 2023, they asked for over $4 billion more in border security funding and another $13.6 billion on October 3. They cared more about looking good than fixing real border security problems.
This planned drop in border crossings is a political move to make things appear under control before the November election. The truth shows a border system that’s “simply broken” 3. Congress doesn’t need to fund essential security adequately and make meaningful changes.
The Calm Before the Storm:
Understanding ‘Operation Carousel’
Operation Carousel, strategically located deep in Mexico’s northern Coahuila, clearly demonstrates Mexico’s calculated border enforcement strategy. This operation involves Mexican military forces establishing a solid presence along crucial migration routes, seemingly blocking all northbound migration. This strategic maneuver indicates the calculated manipulation at play, as it is designed to create a false sense of border control before the November election.
The operation’s core components show its theatrical nature:
- Strategic positioning of National Guard units at significant crossing points
- Coordinated sweeps of known migrant gathering locations
- Apparent but selective enforcement actions
- Temporary detention facilities with revolving-door policies
Behind this show of force, a carefully arranged political performance exists. Mexican military commanders, speaking anonymously, admit their orders emphasize visibility over effectiveness. The operation’s timing reveals its true purpose, which aligns perfectly with the Biden-Harris campaign’s need to demonstrate border control before November’s election.
Reports from the ground reveal this manufactured calm. Migrants in temporary shelters openly discuss their instructions to “wait for the right moment.” A Venezuelan family shared how Mexican soldiers explained these restrictions would not last long and advised them to “aguantar un poco más” (hold on a little longer).
Mexican forces’ current restraint differs significantly from their previous enforcement efforts. Migrants report transportation to holding facilities instead of deportation. They receive release with an unspoken understanding about post-election timing. This selective enforcement creates an illusion of control while managing delayed migration flows.
Military personnel along the Rio Grande corridor use what one officer called a “flexible approach” to enforcement. This approach helps Mexico comply with U.S. demands on the surface while knowing how to change direction quickly after November 5. The result creates an unstable balance that could collapse anytime, freeing the waiting migrants’ pent-up surge.
November 5 and Its Aftermath:
What Changes?
America’s immigration crisis comes alive through the voices of those waiting to cross. “I love Kamala Harris,” a young Venezuelan migrant in southern Mexico says while making a throat-slicing gesture at Trump’s mention 6. This feeling runs deep throughout migrant camps, where the upcoming election shapes everyone’s hopes and fears.
The numbers tell a troubling story: over 150,000 migrants now crowd Tapachula. Intelligence reports suggest the actual numbers could be much higher. These people wait with careful planning, and their future moves depend on the outcome of November’s election. The potential impact of your vote on this crisis cannot be overstated, as it could determine the future of these migrants and the state of America’s border security.
Migrants have worked out their own strategies:
- Venezuelans openly favor Harris and hope for more accessible border crossings
- Hondurans like Carlos say they’ll “wait their turn” if Trump wins 6
- Ghanaian migrants plan to push back their crossing until after election results 6
U.S. officials worry about possible waves of crossings, especially with a Trump victory. “I could definitely see an increase, either a surge before the inauguration or a sustained increase after the election,” a senior official cautions 7. The time between Election Day and January’s inauguration leaves border security vulnerable.
The situation grows more complex as Mexico’s border enforcement weakens. Mexico’s newly-elected president might end their role in “Operation Carousel” after November 5 6. This change could send hundreds of thousands of waiting migrants toward America’s southern border.
Immigration experts see different possibilities: Harris’s leadership would likely maintain current migration patterns 7, while Trump’s victory might cause a “big jump” in border crossings 7. Migrant communities and smugglers spread one key message: January 20, 2025—Inauguration Day marks a crucial deadline 7.
The Reality of the Migrant Crisis in Tapachula
Tapachula, Mexico’s southernmost immigration checkpoint, has become what migrants describe as an “open-air prison.” Thousands remain trapped here in conditions that reveal the harsh reality of America’s looming border crisis 8. The city struggles to support an unprecedented migrant surge with infrastructure designed for only 350,000 residents.
The notorious Siglo XXI detention center, Latin America’s most prominent immigration facility, shows the crisis at its worst. This facility now holds more than 2,000 migrants – more than double its 960-person capacity – under conditions described as “sorely overcrowded and filthy” 9. The center’s 30-foot walls hide systematic abuse reported by migrants, while journalists cannot enter, and authorities confiscate all cell phones 9.
These numbers reveal a devastating situation:
- Tapachula alone received 32,858 asylum applications, accounting for 67% of all nationwide applications 10
- Authorities have detained 74,000 migrants and deported 53,000 since January 9
- Children make up 40% of camp residents 11
Tapachula’s streets mirror the crisis inside detention centers. Migrants huddle in makeshift camps they call “ranchos,” built from cardboard, plastic sheets, and salvaged materials 11. These improvised shelters house up to 2,000 people who share limited resources while enduring severe weather 11.
Local legitimate shelters, including Belen and Jesus el Buen Pastor, cannot handle the overwhelming numbers 10. “We’re operating beyond capacity,” shelter administrators say as they struggle to provide food, mattresses, and hygiene supplies. Many migrants end up on the streets, where they face discrimination, harassment, and growing hostility from locals 10.
This bottleneck creates intense pressure daily. Desperate migrants have sewn their mouths shut and organized fiery protests against slow document processing 8. Some people’s resources and hopes have dwindled after years of being trapped in this limbo 8.
Tapachula’s crisis signals a more significant problem that could soon affect America’s southern border after the election. Mexico’s enforcement policies will expire after November 5, and the large groups of migrants waiting there could become America’s immediate challenge.
The Window of Vulnerability:
November 5 to January 20
America faces its most vulnerable period in recent border security history during the seventy-five-day window between November’s election and January’s inauguration. Multiple factors could create potential border chaos while U.S. intelligence agencies warn of a “heightened threat environment” as Election Day approaches 12.
The critical gap between Election Day and Inauguration Day
Border Patrol sources reveal a concerning surge of unique interest aliens from terror-prone nations like Iran, Angola, Guinea, and Pakistan 13. Daily crossings have doubled recently, as more than 300 migrants now surrender each day in Maverick County alone 13. These numbers signal a potentially massive migration wave during the upcoming transition period.
What happens if Trump wins:
Migrants’ race against time to cross before January 20
Recent reports reveal concerning details about the “Trump scenario.” Criminal organizations have intensified their activities and try to “rake in profits because they know Trump is about to get elected” 13. The situation has created unprecedented urgency among waiting migrants due to the former president’s planned mass deportation strategy, which resembles Operation Wetback 13. Several indicators highlight this trend:
- Border crossings have increased to 7,000 per day 14
- Mexican enforcement shows signs of strategic relaxation
- Particular interest alien encounters have reached 1.7 million under the current administration 13
Harris’ potential open-border policies:
A beacon for more caravans
A Harris victory raises equally troubling scenarios. Border Patrol sources reveal that migrants see her potential presidency as a chance to enter without restrictions 13. “They don’t want to wait in line behind the millions that will follow if Kamala wins,” a senior agent reports 13.
The administration’s track record sets off alarm bells. Harris claims success in tackling migration’s root causes: 1. Still, critics say she “a less risky path, ensuring the problem only worsened” 1. Her campaign’s promise to hire “thousands more border agents” 1 starkly contrasts today’s policy actions.
Mexican officials now say they’ve done their part until November 5, 14. This stance hints at the likely breakdown of existing containment efforts. Security experts call this combination of timing and the transition period’s weaknesses a “perfect storm” that could trigger unprecedented waves at the border.
The Stakes for the Republic
America’s border crisis surpasses simple immigration numbers and challenges our national sovereignty directly. The Biden-Harris administration allowed an unprecedented 7.6 million illegal aliens to cross into the United States 15 since January 2021. This massive influx has altered the map of national security significantly.
America’s Critical Decision:
Strong Border Control or Unprecedented Migrant Flows
Recent border statistics paint a concerning picture of the current crisis. Border patrol agents have intercepted 382 individuals from terrorist watchlists at the southwest border since January 2021 15. The numbers become more alarming with 1.7 million unique interest aliens from countries that pose national security threats 15. The situation escalated significantly as authorities recorded 566,079 particular interest alien encounters in 2023 alone 15.
Implications for national security and local communities
Border policies under the current administration have created security vulnerabilities never seen before. The Department of Homeland Security released 99 into American communities from over 250 illegal aliens on terrorist watchlists between 2021-2023 15. These releases happened despite obvious security threats that show a complete breakdown in border enforcement protocols.
Countries of most crucial concern now include Afghanistan, Iran, Syria, China, North Korea, and Venezuela 15. DHS admitted that coming from these high-risk nations “does not affect an alien’s admissibility” to the United States 15.
The crisis hits local communities hardest. Border towns struggle with overwhelming pressure on their:
- Law enforcement resources 16
- Social services infrastructure 16
- Economic stability 16
- Public Safety Systems 16
The importance of voting and staying vigilant post-election
Border security stands at a crucial crossroads in the upcoming election. Recent polling shows that 77% of Americans consider the southern border a crisis or major problem 17. The data also reveals that 55% want to reduce overall immigration, while 53% support border wall expansion 17.
Voters’ decisions will have immediate effects on national security. Border Patrol statistics demonstrate how current policies enable security threats to exploit vulnerabilities. Particular interest in alien encounters has reached record levels of 15. The administration’s decision to release known security risks into American communities highlights the significance of border policy choices during elections.
America’s sovereignty depends on securing its borders against illegal crossings while supporting legal entry and commerce 16. This core homeland security principle faces significant challenges. The post-election period might let loose built-up migration pressure at the southern border.
Conclusion:
Call to Action
A historic border crisis looms just days away in America. Temporary agreements create an artificial calm before the election. Mexican authorities use Operation Carousel to hold back large groups of migrants. Thousands wait in overcrowded shelters in Tapachula for their chance to head north. The administration carefully manipulates border statistics while these planned delays create political theater that could lead to chaos after November 5.
This crisis surpasses regular immigration issues and threatens American sovereignty and national security directly. Border Patrol data shows troubling encounters with unique interest aliens and individuals on terrorist watchlists. Intelligence reports warn about massive surges during the crucial transition period. American voters must now choose between more robust border security and managing an incoming wave of migration that could change the nation’s demographic and security makeup completely.
References
[5] – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04WBPile_lA
[6] – https://www.toddbensman.com/the-daily-mail-bensman-reports-from-southern-mexico-in-print-and-video/
[7] – https://www.cbsnews.com/news/illegal-border-crossings-remain-low-concerns-election-could-end-lull/
[8] – https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/tapachula-lives-in-limbo/
[9] – https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/overcrowding-abuse-seen-mexico-migrant-detention-center-n1018231
[10] – https://dtm.iom.int/reports/mexico-flow-monitoring-migrants-tapachula-and-tenosique-round-3-may-2022
[12] – https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/understanding-threats-us-election-security-2024
[16] – https://www.dhs.gov/topics/border-security
[18] – https://www.infowars.com/posts/the-coming-post-election-border-rush
[19] – https://borderhawk.news/the-coming-post-election-border-rush/
[20] – https://x.com/abrahamvanaya/status/1772512082602467409
[21] – https://cis.org/Arthur/Breaking-Down-FY-2024-Southwest-Border-Numbers
[22] – https://x.com/BorderHawkNews/status/1763582478432833565
[23] – https://borderhawk.news/donate/
[24] – https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13989363/mexico-migrant-caravan-election-todd-bensman.html
[25] – https://x.com/BensmanTodd/status/1849232215198048620
[26] – https://borderhawk.news/mexico-begins-busing-migrants-from-south-of-county-to-us-border/

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